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The improving growth prospects and current-account balance and higher credit availability in combination with moderate inflation have led Credendo to place Uruguay in the lowest risk category for systemic commercial risk (A on a risk scale from A to C).
The overall outlook is stable but nevertheless remains vulnerable to external shocks given the country’s high economic openness.
This evolution can mainly be explained by weakening Uruguayan growth since 2015, when Brazil plunged into recession.
Since then, the government has introduced consolidation measures, resulting in declining fiscal deficits.
Since 2012 Uruguay has been in category 3/7 for the short term due to its vast amount of foreign-exchange reserves mitigating the risk of an elevated level of external short-term debt.
The business environment has improved vastly in the past year.
Therefore, commitment to fiscal consolidation will be important for ensuring fiscal sustainability.
However, election years – such as 2019 – have seen historically higher spending and deficits, suggesting the deficit could widen again.
Internal disagreements are likely to slow down some areas of policymaking, especially the unpopular fiscal adjustment plan.
Vázquez is likely to face more pressure in this arena as the 2019 elections approach.
As of 2018, primary surpluses are expected but due to the weight of interest payments the overall balance is expected to remain in deficit (estimated at -2.9% of GDP in 2018).
Indeed, the interest payments are significant, standing at around 10% of revenues.
Economic and political turmoil, in particular left-wing urban guerrilla attacks in the early 1970s, led the government to suspend the constitution and launch a period of repressive military rule.